Will Fog Lead To Snow In November?


Too soon to talk about snow?  We have some insight on chances for snow in November.

Thick fog greeted many in eastern and southeast South Dakota Monday morning.

Enough for visibilities to drop to near zero at times and it prompted a dense fog advisory for the morning hours.  Anytime we get thick fog in August, I’m reminded of the old folklore of 90 days after thick fog expect snow to fly.  Over the years I’ve done some research and here’s what the numbers suggest.

Over a seven-year period from 2004 to 2011, I tracked days of thick fog in Sioux Falls and documented the precip, if any, 90 and 100 days out.  Here’s what I came up with.

90 days after thick fog from August through January, we had snow six of the 74 instances, only eight percent of the time.  Rain was recorded 22 of the 74 instances for 30 percent of the time.  100 days after thick fog during that time, it snowed 10 times or 14 percent of the time and it rained 20 times or 27 percent of the time.

90 days out from the thick fog on Monday ends up being the 12th of November; 100 days out is the 22nd of November, which is the day before Thanksgiving.  We’ll have to wait and see if any of these dates hold true.  

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