SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — We’re now in meteorological winter, and while the temperatures will waffle back in the short term, we may have more substantial cold on the way.

Strong south winds helped temperatures return above average in southeast KELOLAND on this December 1st day. But don’t get used to the warmer-than-average air.

I think the first half of the month will be dominated by a blocking pattern which will set up over Greenland. While this allows for colder air in the northeast United States, that colder air will also brush us in KELOLAND. Again, this type of blocking pattern may last for the first half of the month.

After that, we’ll have to watch for more substantial colder air. As we’ve been monitoring arctic air that’s just been teasing us to the north. I expect to see this arctic air to invade the northern plains sometime during the second half of December. Along with the colder air, I expect snow to be above average for the month. Average snowfall ranges from around 6 to 8.5 inches in KELOLAND for the month of December.

If our two-and-a-half-week pattern holds true, look for our best chance for snow in the middle of the month and at the end of the month or the first couple days of January.