SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — Pattern recognition is a great tool when putting together a longer range forecast. The recent warmth followed by the rain and cool air has been in the works for a couple of months now.

The pattern goes back to August when we had temperatures in the 90s August 2-4, followed by heavy rain August 5 and 6.

September 1-4 had highs in the 90s and 100s. Followed by cooler air. While Sioux Falls did not receive much rain, there was rain in the area.

And our latest was highs in the 90s to begin October, followed by rain.

Our warmth followed by rain and cooler air all had the same pattern.

First, a trough sets up in the western United States, this helped bring the warmth to the central and northern plains.

As the trough moves east, it helps bring rain chances to KELOLAND.

So, if this four-week pattern holds, expect well above-average temperatures followed by cooler-than-average air around the end of the month and beginning of November. Keep in mind, being November, snow starts to come into the conversation. I’ll just leave it at that.