Strong hints at a shift in the weather pattern that would bring KELOLAND some ups and downs


We don’t normally talk about the forecast beyond the seven day here at the KELOLAND Live Doppler Storm Center. The reason for that is weather is extremely difficult to predict beyond seven days out. Forecast specifics are out of the question but forecast trends are what we look at.

And the current forecast trends are looking like it might be worth talking about the forecast beyond the seven day because it’s looking very different to the current forecast.

The current forecast now is calling for spring like weather with clear, sunny skies and highs in the 40s to 50s. That begins later this work week and lasts into the weekend.

But it’s the middle of next week that we are seeing strong hints at some winter weather in the Midwest.

Your KELOLAND meteorologists use weather computer models every day, but we also use a forecast technique that includes the use of ensemble weather computer models. These ensembles give us a range of outcomes and when the ensembles are averaging towards a certain outcome, that gives the forecast a little more confidence.

And the last couple of days, those ensembles have been very clearly showing a pattern in the jet stream that is known for producing significant weather events in the Midwest.

So what should the response be? Well nothing now because we are still near 10 days out.

To try to simplify, this forecast for next week is like driving down the road and seeing a red traffic light a quarter mile away. You wouldn’t start slowing down right then but you would get ready to slow down just in case the light doesn’t turn green by the time you get there.

That’s how we are to respond to the forecast for snow next week. Don’t start taking action now but at least start getting mentally prepared to deal with the outcome if it were to verify.

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