Morning rain fell in western KELOLAND, especially along the Nebraska border. That moved off into eastern Nebraska before dying off while some new showers appeared south of Mobridge from the heat of the day. There’s a warm front over southern Nebraska, though high resolution models do not see that moving our way. Expect only a few high clouds the rest of today letting quite a lot of sunshine through. Temperatures were able to get into the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints are just under 70, starting our humid trend for the rest of the week.
A substantial amount of energy develops this afternoon due to high temperatures and dewpoints. With added forcing from a strong low level jet tonight, severe thunderstorms are quite possible over the overnight hours. (Much of KELOLAND is rated a slight risk for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center.) Areas north of I-90 are most likely to see severe weather. Areas in NE South Dakota could see rainfall totals over an inch after the storm passes, with added high winds and hail during it. Most of KELOLAND will have lows in the mid 60s.
There is a decent chance that rainfall tonight may persist into early morning Thursday, but we should be a bit drier once that passes. Cloud cover will be more than what we’ve seen today, as air is still quite a bit unstable – though conditions should be slightly drier after the storms. Heat continues to develop into the upper 80s, with temperatures in the 90s for central SD. With all this humidity, it will feel two or three degrees higher outside than the actual air temperature.
These warm conditions don’t let up, as the warm up continues on Friday and Saturday and even Sunday with more moisture surging in. Highs will reach the low 90s with sunny skies, and with muggy dewpoints in the 70s it could feel close to 110 outside. The peak of the heat appears to be on Saturday, where south central South Dakota could reach 100 degrees with high humidity. Most areas will remain around 70 for nighttime lows, so air conditioning will be needed.
Another push of energy comes in Sunday evening for another chance of thunderstorms with light to moderate rainfall for the first part of next week. Temperatures will get back into the mid 80s by Monday, putting us back in average conditions for summer. We will drop back to the mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday and even on the 4th of July, with at leas a chance for showers or thunderstorm each day.