Another wet day for western KELOLAND with a flood watch still in effect for southwest South Dakota. Areas of heavy rain spanning several counties have slowly progressed from the southwest to south central parts of the state with highs in the 50s for affected areas. Showers peeled away this morning for eastern South Dakota leaving us with beautiful skies with wide areas of cumulus clouds from weak instability lingering about. Highs were able to get past 60 for much of the southeast.
Rain in the Rapid City area is expected to persist into the evening hours, but slow down around 7pm, thus precipitation potential has been lowered. That rain will then move into Sioux Falls and Pierre with Aberdeen possibly seeing a few showers on the edge of that system. The southeast could see an inch of rain by tomorrow morning. Thick cloud cover should keep nighttime temperatures in the west close to what they were today while eastern KELOLAND will see temperatures drop from the low 60s into the low 50s.
Winds will be mostly calm tomorrow into Thursday, although some gusts in the low teens are likely. This is due to warm Alberta air surging through starting Wednesday afternoon forming a small ridge of high pressure. These systems are typically associated with weak winds and clear conditions, so cloud cover will slowly diminish Wednesday with clear conditions for the entire state Thursday. Highs will begin warming in Aberdeen with a high of 71 tomorrow followed by mid to upper 70s on Thursday.
The weekend is tricky, as our most favored model in the storm center is predicting highs in the mid 70s while most other models predict a sharp warm up into the 80s due to mixing of the warm Alberta air with warm air from the south. Nevertheless, expect warm conditions through the weekend with a chance of showers in the west for Sunday night into Monday. All models indicate a warm up for the early parts of next week with high dewpoints along I 29. Monday and Tuesday are expected to be humid for eastern KELOLAND.