It is a warm and humid 4th-of-July-Eve. Temperatures are close to normal across KELOLAND, in the 80s. Thanks to a SE breeze, humidity has been building. Dew points – the true measure of humidity in the air – have reached the upper 60s in SE KELOLAND. This moisture will come back down to earth in the form of thunderstorms in the next 24 hours.
Even though it is the holiday period, most folks would be somewhere between glad and ecstatic to get some rainfall. Unfortunately, the area most likely to see decent rainfall in the next 24 hours is Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND… and hardly any where we have the most severe drought conditions in western, central, and northern South Dakota.
Tonight we’ll see rain and thunderstorms develop in western and central South Dakota and then move east. While eastern KELOLAND may see some spotty thundershowers this evening, there will be a better chance of rain later tonight. In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall in SE KELOLAND (due to the expected slow movement of any storms that do form), there will also be a risk that some thunderstorms may produce hail or strong winds in the southern half of KELOLAND.
Tomorrow we’ll have a chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the day in eastern KELOLAND, and then a slight chance of redevelopment in the late afternoon and evening time frame. There is a chance some of these thunderstorms may disrupt 4th of July activities, mainly in SE KELOLAND. In between the two chances for storms, temperatures will be warm, in the 80s East River to the low 90s West River – where skies will be mostly sunny.
We should also mention that if thunderstorms do form, there is at least a marginal chance that those storms could turn severe tomorrow and tomorrow night, with hail and strong winds the main threats from any of the strong storms that do form.
Wednesday we should see the storms move out, and then we begin a prolonged period of hot and dry weather. Under mostly sunny skies, Wednesday and Thursday’s temperatures will be scorching, with eastern KELOLAND in the low to mid 90s, while much of central and western South Dakota – the areas that area already extremely dry – will be near or over 100 degrees.
Dry weather continues all weekend long, with highs mainly in the 80s with sunny skies Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, while Western South Dakota remains well into the 90s.We expect temperatures to remain in that same ballpark, much above normal, through most of next week as well.