Severe weather outlook for KELOLAND

Weather

KELOLAND Meteorologist Brian Karstens did a story Wednesday about the slow start to the severe weather season in KELOLAND. He showed this graphic that compares the severe weather reports from this year to the averaged number of reports from the last three years. So you could easily say it’s a slow start to the severe weather season.

So what does this data mean for the rest of the summer? Will we see sunny and clear weather? Or will strong thunderstorms dot our Live Doppler Radars?

Well the answer to those questions depends on who you ask.

The simplest forecast would say that our severe weather season is just delayed. Normally, our severe weather season is right now but since we’ve been so cool lately, logic would say that our severe weather season would ramp up in late June to early July.

Another option is to look at the long range, monthly computer models and see what kind of weather pattern they are simulating. And the main two models we use couldn’t be more different.
Both the European and the American build a trough over the central US next week and slowly moves it west the rest of the month.

The differences show up in July.

The American brings it back to the east into the Midwest while the Euro shifts the low to the west. These differences in the low-pressure tracks translate to the American would be a stormy pattern for the first couple weeks of July and the European would translate to a drier pattern.

And studies over the years have shown the European is the more reliable computer model. So, for now, your KELOLAND meteorologists are leaning towards to Euro which means, an overall, quiet and cooler than average July.

So now we wait to see how the pattern will play out. 

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