SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — In KELOLAND, we depend on rainfall in the month of May to recharge the soil moisture as we head into the growing season. So far, May is off to a dry start for many.

A quick look at the 30 day rainfall trend map shows the moisture deficits from April.

Aberdeen is running above north, but Sioux Falls is not. It’s also drying out in parts of western South Dakota. The snow melt is buffering the effects of this drier cycle so far, but the next 10 days will prove important as watch the moisture patterns in the plains.

To our south, drought is king in Nebraska and Kansas as shown by the latest drought monitor. Most of this is long-term drought that will be slow to correct.

The modified drought air over that region did play a role in the configuration of the rain map the past 3 days, with a noticeable lack of rain in much of eastern KELOLAND.

The Gulf of Mexico opens up later this week again, which is promising to get humidity to flow into KELOLAND again.

However, the rain chances still appear best in western, central, and northern KELOLAND. The below-normal trends in Kansas, Missouri, and Iowa are also noteworthy.

The models can underestimate the effect of dry soils on rain outlooks, so we’ll be monitoring the pattern closely.