Tuesday, we talked about some of the big factors that would lead us down a similar path to last winter. Now, we turn our attention to what may be different, including a possible El Nino event.
First, let me explain what El Nino is and is not. We define El Nino in simple terms as an above normal water region near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Some El Ninos are weak, some moderate, and some are strong. The intensity of the El Nino makes a big difference. Also, the specific regions along the equator that warm make a difference to the resulting impact in winter across North America.
If El Nino develops the way we think it will, we'll be seeing a more active southern branch of the jet stream. This may deliver above normal snowfall to states to our south. This can prove tricky for KELOLAND. We could find ourselves on the northern edge of dominate storm track during the heart of winter.
It also reduces severity of the cold a bit, but we have a long way to go before making a definitive call on the winter forecast. Scot has plenty of work ahead of him on the official winter forecast.