SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (KELO) — The ingredients for locally heavy rain will be around KELOLAND this weekend.

After a long stretch of hot and mainly dry weather for many of us in July, this first weekend in August represents a good opportunity for a wider swath of rain in KELOLAND. Just how much rain falls depends on several factors.

One important factor we are watching is the depth of the humidity in the atmosphere. With a full connection of monsoon moisture from the Rockies this weekend, the atmosphere should hold very high levels of water for this time of year in the areas shaded in red on this map.

The front triggering the rain will slow down enough to allow multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop. We sometimes call that a “training effect”, which can be effective at producing several inches of rain with local thunderstorm areas.

According to the probability maps from the European model, the likelihood of over 1″ rain is highest across much of southern Minnesota at 80 percent. The scenario for Saturday night into Sunday morning could still increase farther west into more of South Dakota, a trend worth watching.

While recent dry conditions will minimize some of the flash flooding potential, urban areas can still be susceptible to some quick runoff this weekend.