Thunderstorms likely end of this week: Storm Center PM Update – Wednesday, August 18

Forecast

It’s another hot and – in eastern KELOLAND – humid day. Temperatures have been pushing through the 80s into the 90s, not quite the triple digits we had in central and western South Dakota yesterday. South winds are drawing in the warm, moist air, and sunshine is punching through the wildfire smoke aloft.

2 PM

Tonight we’ll have mostly clear skies in the east, which thicker clouds push into western South Dakota. It will be another mild night, with the upper 60s to low 70s after the south winds die down.

Things will also be hot again tomorrow East River (90s) ahead of an incoming cold front. The front may create thunderstorms, starting in western, central, and NE South Dakota during the late afternoon, and then move to Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND Thursday night.

It is quite possible there will be some severe weather in western South Dakota tomorrow afternoon and night. Hail is the most likely issue, but there could also be some strong wind. There could also be some pockets of heavy rainfall.

Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread on Friday, and we may be looking at some beneficial rainfall amounts around an inch or more. Severe weather will also be possible, with the Storm Prediction Center pinpointing a slight risk of severe weather Friday afternoon and night – Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated thunderstorms possible. With the rain and wind switch, temperatures will start to fall back to the 80s as the front passes through.

But there will also be some beneficial rainfall from this system – forecast models are outputting a broad ½” to 1” through Saturday morning. Extreme rainfall (over 2”) is possible, with the bullseye of that in NE South Dakota.

Timing of the next round of thunderstorms would keep Saturday dry and cool and breezy, with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Sunday brings the potential for scattered thunderstorms as slightly warmer air returns to the region, highs in the low to mid 80s.

Given the every-other-day thunderstorm pattern that seems to be setting up, we’ll keep Monday in the mid 80s with a partly to mostly sunny skies. That would give us scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday with highs in the mid 80s.

The rest of next week looks cool, as below normal temperatures look to take over the second half of next week through the final days of August.

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