We’ve had a few showers and thundershowers around, and we could see some redevelopment this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and temperatures are near-normal for this time of year. That should continue to hinder thunderstorm development. As far as stronger thunderstorms, Sioux Falls to the south along the I-29 corridor is considered to be in a marginal condition for severe weather, a one on the scale of one to five from the Storm Prediction Center. Hail is the most likely threat, with tornadoes a long shot at occurring.
Skies will remain cloudy overnight in Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND, while skies will be mostly clear to the west. Lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s, with only a very light breeze.
Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, though it could be a touch breezy with a westerly wind. Rapid City could have some showers or thundershowers, so it will be a little cooler in the west.
Winds will pick up on Thursday, as it will become windy and warmer. We’ll be in the 70s – much warmer, to the mid 80s in Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND. With a low pressure system passing through northern South Dakota, we’ll have an increase in potential energy and a risk of severe weather Thursday night and Friday morning. This will be a system we’ll certainly be keeping an eye on this week, with the potential for severe weather in eastern KELOLAND starting Thursday. The storm Prediction Center already has I-29 to the east, including Sioux Falls, listed as a slight risk for severe weather.
After the showers and storms end on Friday, clouds will start to decrease but colder air will come rushing in. Friday afternoon will be breezy, with highs only in the low 60s. Rapid City, well behind the cold front, will be around 50.
The weekend looks unseasonably cold. We’ll have morning lows in the mid 30s. So far, forecast models continue to hold those lows just above the frost mark except for Rapid City and western South Dakota, but this is something gardeners should keep a close watch on as the weekend approaches. Afternoon highs will only be in the mid 50s on Saturday, and the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday, under partly cloudy skies both days.
Monday will be mostly cloudy and a little warmer as temperatures start to recover. We have showers in the forecast both Monday and Tuesday, but they don’t look like very much on the forecast models – which cannot even agree on timing. The rest of next week we expect to have near- or even slightly above normal temperatures. That means the mid to upper 70s in eastern KELOLAND. The trend of mild temperatures looks to continue through Memorial Day weekend.