Storm Center Update – Thursday PM May 16

Forecast
May16_KELO_SiouxFalls

It has been another very warm day in southeast KELOLAND with temperatures in Sioux Falls in the 80s, while areas to the north and west struggling to get through the mid-70s. With the front came a few spotty showers in central KELOLAND, further cooling western South Dakota into the 60s.

Tonight winds will increase from the east, ahead of a big storm system that will impact us this weekend. Light to moderate rain can be expected in most areas in the very early hours of Friday morning, with a good chance of thunderstorms in the southeastern tip of southeast South Dakota – maybe even Sioux Falls. Lows will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The Storm Prediction Center has pushed the risk of severe overnight storms a little farther south, mainly in northern Nebraska, where hail and strong winds will be possible.

Rain will begin early tomorrow – but then eastern South Dakota may get a break from the rain. Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy, keeping temperatures in the 50s for most of South Dakota with 60s in Sioux Falls and the SE – with brisk easterly winds. Friday night we will see thunderstorms redevelop in eastern KELOLAND. In addition to the threat of severe weather, we also have the potential for heavy rain. The severe weather risk is enhanced along the Nebraska border, where an incoming front may be able to produce tornadoes. But the strength of any storms that form will depend on how much heating we get from sunshine earlier in the day.

Rain should continue with cloudy skies on Saturday. In Sioux Falls and the southern part of KELOLAND, rain will be most likely during the morning, and then we may get a break in the precipitation during the afternoon hours before rainfall redevelops later in the day. Most areas will see 1 to 2 inches of rain from Friday to Saturday, but some areas south and southeast of Sioux Falls could reach 3 inches, especially into Iowa. Saturday’s highs will be warmest, in the 60s in SE KELOLAND, while we remain in the 50s in the north and west. We will also have brisk easterly winds, strongest in northern South Dakota.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy as well, with continuing chances of rain – though not as heavy as what we see on Saturday. Colder air will be pouring into the region, with highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s. Those high temperatures may set records for cold high temperatures. Rapid City and the Black Hills may even see a mix of rain and snow Sunday morning.

Monday morning will be chilly, with lows in the 30s. Then we’ll see some showers in western and southern South Dakota, with below-normal highs in the 50s. Again, Rapid City may get a mix of rain and snow.

Another broad area of rainfall is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, though the risk of severe weather looks rather low. But we could get another inch or two out of this system, rainfall we certainly do not need.

Temperatures look to remain below normal all week, though we will probably get into the upper 60s in eastern KELOLAND for the second half of next week through the weekend.
 

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