Storm Center Update – Thursday PM August 22

Forecast

BIG PICTURE:
Upper level ridge over the Midwest today will get pushed out by a slow moving upper level trough tomorrow and we’ll be under the effects of this slow moving trough through Monday. This trough should bring a passing band of clouds and rain through the area from west to east. Upper level flow should remain out of the northwest next week which puts us at risk of quick hits of light rain and much cooler temps.

FORECAST DETAILS:
Clear skies are in the forecast tonight for east KELOLAND but western SD could see some isolated thunderstorms tonight. Overnight lows will be in the 50s in the east, 60s in the west.

Friday will bring some changes to the area. That upper level trough will begin to swing through and that should bring some rain and storms to KELOLAND, moving through west to east. So the east would stay dry but central and west KELOLAND would be the main regions at risk for the scattered rain. Friday’s highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s.

The rain potential will continue to move west to east this weekend. So we are expecting a band of thick cloud cover with passing showers and thunderstorms. Highs this weekend will be in the 70s in the east, upper 70s to low 80s in the west.

If we see any severe weather with this next storm system, it’s looking like the best chance is tomorrow in western SD. This region would has highest probability while east may lack the energy needed in the atmosphere. But we are still a couple days out so we’ll keep an eye on this.

One aspect of this forecast that is interesting is a large portion of KELOLAND could end up with some decent rain. At this point, central and northern KELOLAND has about a 60 to 80% chance at getting more than a half an inch of rain through Monday morning. The northern counties in South Dakota still have about a 40 to 50% chance of seeing more than an inch of rain.

Next week is looking dry overall but a northwest flow puts us at risk of quick moving hits of light rain so stay plugged into the forecast and don’t be surprised if those quick hits are added into the forecast. Highs next week are looking well below normal, projected to be in the 70s for most of the area, some counties in the northeast may struggle to get out of the 60s some days late next week!

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