Storm Center Update- Thursday AM, June 10th

Forecast

Rain was very hard to find yesterday in KELOLAND, although a few cells developing in the northeast. The isolated nature of the storms is reflected by all the zeroes on the rain gauge reports. We hope these numbers will change tonight.

We are running about half of our “normal” moisture in much of eastern KELOLAND the past 30 days. May and June are critical months for moisture as many of you know. The rain tonight will be very important to watch.

Temperatures are not helping the situation. We had another day in the 90s for most areas and today will be even hotter.

Storms will grab the weather headlines tonight. Severe weather is expected and an “enhanced” risk covers much of the state. The storms are expected to weaken as they march east late tonight toward I-29.

Futurecast shows the storms firing this evening in the west, with a line of storms advancing east after midnight. We’ll see the line getting to Sioux Falls after 3am. Storms will end from west to east tomorrow morning.

How much rain will we see? The European model is painting a more “broad brush” approach with a general .25″-.50″ of moisture. That is a cautious approach and during a drought, not a bad idea. However, it appears some of the storms will produce more rain than shown on the map below.

One of our “in house” models at KELOLAND is trying to produced pockets of 1″ of rain tonight. This seems reasonable, but again, we’ll be careful to monitor the trends during the day for more evidence to support these higher numbers. It goes without saying we need every bit of 1″ of rain in many areas.

Stay cool today. A heat advisory is in effect for central and eastern KELOLAND with highs near 100.

Storms tonight will feed off the heat and humidity. If you have a weather radio, you may want to use it as most of this severe weather will happen while many of us are sleeping.

Tomorrow will be windy behind the front and cooler. It won’t take long for hotter weather to return.

We are forecasting 90s next week and not much rain at this time.

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