Storm Center Update- Thursday AM, August 5th

Forecast

Good morning! A few showers have moved across KELOLAND the past 24 hours. Most of the rain numbers have been below .10″.

We have had a few showers this morning across NW IA, but most areas are dry.

We still have a lot of smoke in the air. This story will remain tough to change in the short-term forecast.

The total rainfall patterns this summer tell the story of drought. We’ll get a new drought monitor today, but you can clearly see many areas in the central and east are several inches of rain below normal since early May. The Black Hills area, however, is doing much better with some areas 2″ above normal. Above normal temperatures have also made the general dry problem worse.

Today, expect a few widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. We have some suggestions of hits of rain around Sioux Falls yet this afternoon into SW MN. We also can’t rule out a passing shower tonight, but most areas should stay dry. We do see better chances of showers and t-storms West River tomorrow and tomorrow night as a more organized storm system heads toward KELOLAND.

A slow-moving area of low pressure will move through KELOLAND this weekend. We think thunderstorms may trigger near the surface boundary Saturday morning north of Sioux Falls. Then, redeveloping storms are looking likely in a scattered formation from North Dakota to Kansas Saturday night. Locally heavy rain and spots of severe weather can’t be ruled out in this pattern.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe risk map for Saturday, with the slight risk zone including Sioux Falls.

Our forecast is warmer today for much of KELOLAND, including Pierre at 94. Aberdeen and Rapid City will be near 91.

Tonight should be mild with lows 60s with only widely scattered showers possible.

Tomorrow looks plenty warm with many areas in the 90s. Thunderstorms West River in the afternoon could be strong in spots.

Our best chance of rain in the 7 day forecast is Saturday, but we do have another strong system to watch by the middle of next week. We still have a lot questions surrounding the eventual track of that rain, but we will certainly keep an eye on that in the coming days.

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