After some morning to midday showers and thunderstorms, the afternoon has been mostly quiet, save for some storms in NW Iowa. But we are seeing the clouds clearing in southern KELOLAND and this means we can’t close the book on the storm potential just yet. As the clouds continue to decrease, that will allow for some mixing in the atmosphere and with the frontal boundaries cutting through KELOLAND, that could be just enough of a trigger to get storms going.
That being said, if we were to try to narrow down where the best potential is, that is in western and northern KELOLAND. This is due to a center of low pressure that will move through and that is where the greatest upward vertical motion will be found. If storms are able to initiate, some could be strong to severe with large hail and strong winds being the main concerns.
Temperatures tonight will remain steady or even increase for the central and eastern regions while the west cools to the 40s once a cold front passes through.
The cold front will keep marching eastward tomorrow with much cooler air behind it. Ahead of the front, SE KELOLAND should make it into the upper 70s to 80s, but the rest of the area will be behind the front and cooler, in the lower 70s and cooler. Rapid City might not make it out of the 50s!
There will be another shot at rainfall Monday night into Tuesday with highs dropping back to the 40s in the west, with 50s to near 60 elsewhere. Wednesday and Thursday will be even colder, with morning lows in the 30s to low 40s and afternoon highs in the 50s. While the Black Hills might be cold enough for snow, latest model runs are going with about 1 to 3 inches total over a couple of nighttime events in the highest elevations. Friday looks a little warmer with highs in the lower 60s.