Upper level low on the west coast will weaken over the next few days and will slowly be replaced by an upper level high. This means that after this weekend’s cooler 70s, 80s will return to KELOLAND this week with an overall dry forecast. There is still some thunderstorm potential early this week and daily storm chances over the Black Hills, but no real big outbreaks or organized storm activity.
Hail reports from a severe thunderstorm that popped up over the eastern Black Hills have been quite impressive. Most hail reports have been over one inch with some folks reporting hail up to and exceeding two inches in diameter. And once the sun goes down, the odds of seeing a strong storm like that will go down. That being said, more isolated thunderstorms are still expected overnight.
As we turn the page on the weekend and head into the work week, warmer air will slide in from the west. This will bring KELOLAND thunderstorm chances Monday, then a weak cold front Tuesday will bring another round of rain. But as we settle into this warmer air, the rest of the week should be dry, except for the daily chances for rain over the Black Hills.
Monday will be partly cloudy, with temperatures warmer still, in the 70s to lower 80s with afternoon to nighttime thunderstorms likely. Again, some thunderstorms could be strong to severe.
Tuesday will continue the chances for thunderstorms as a cold front swings through from the north. The best set up area for storms, some strong to severe, will be in the east while the central region stays mostly dry. Some pop up thunderstorms are possible over the Black Hills once it warms up enough, but they will quickly die out as the sun goes down.
Wednesday looks dry with highs still reaching the lower 80s.
We’ll finish the week with continued afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s with partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Next weekend into early next week is the next opportunity for passing, organized thunderstorms.