Today has the potential to be an active day of weather as an area of low pressure enters KELOLAND from the southwest. There will be a brisk SE wind bringing moist air into the region but a big limiting factor in storm development will be the cloud cover. But if clouds can clear out quick enough and we end up with enough daytime sunshine, along with that incoming moisture, the potential is there for strong thunderstorms in the west and east portions of the area. High temperatures will range in the 70s for most of the area, a little warmer in the far southern counties, a little cooler in the far northern counties.
As far as the severe weather threat goes, it is still a slight risk from the SPC but it has been expanded to include most of KELOLAND. If thunderstorms form, we would have the ingredients in place for all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes, large hail, and strong winds. But that threat may be upgraded, especially if we get a good amount of sunshine in the afternoon.
If any storms are able to develop, showers and storms will last into the nighttime hours. Overnight temperatures will cool to the 60s to low 70s in the southeast, 50s in the central and northeast, 40s in the west.
Some rain may linger into Monday morning as a cold front approaches with much cooler air behind it. Ahead of the front, SE KELOLAND should make it into the upper 70s to 80s, but the rest of the area will be behind the front and cooler, in the lower 70s and cooler. Rapid City might not make it out of the 50s!
There will be another shot at rainfall Monday night into Tuesday morning with highs dropping back to the 40s in the west, with 50s to near 60 elsewhere. Wednesday and Thursday will be even colder, with morning lows in the 30s to low 40s and afternoon highs in the 50s. While the Black Hills might be cold enough for snow, latest model runs are going with about 1 to 3 inches total over a couple of nighttime events in the highest elevations. Friday looks a little warmer with highs in the lower 60s.