After clouds and rain moved into KELOLAND today, the rain chances continue tonight but the best bet to get wet will be in eastern KELOLAND. Can’t completely go with dry skies for the west as there are lingering light chances. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to 50s.
Sunday has the potential to be an active day of weather as an area of low pressure enters KELOLAND from the southwest. There will be a brisk SE wind bringing moist air into the region, so we may have some fog and drizzle in the morning. But if we can get enough daytime sunshine along with that incoming moisture, the potential is there for strong thunderstorms in the west and east portions of the area, moving east during the late afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will range in the 70s.
As far as the severe weather threat goes, SE KELOLAND will be the target area for severe weather potential. If thunderstorms form we may have the ingredients in place for all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has rated the area as a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather. But that threat may be upgraded, especially if we get a good amount of daytime heating from sunshine Sunday afternoon.
Some rain may linger into Monday morning as a cold front approaches with much cooler air behind it. Ahead of the front, SE KELOLAND should make it into the low 80s, but the rest of the area will be behind the front and cooler, in the 70s. Rapid City might not make it out of the 50s!
There will be another shot at rainfall on Monday night into Tuesday morning as highs drop back to the 40s in the west, with 50s to near 60 elsewhere. Wednesday and Thursday will be even colder, with morning lows in the 30s to low 40s and afternoon highs in the 50s. While Rapid City and the Black Hills might be cold enough for snow, latest model runs are going with about 1 to 3 inches total in the highest elevations. Friday looks a little warmer with highs in the lower 60s.