Storm Center Update – Saturday PM August 17

Forecast

BIG PICTURE:
An upper level trough of low pressure will pass KELOLAND to the north this weekend. This should bring the upper Midwest some passing cooler weather so tomorrow would end up being a little cooler than today, then warmer weather returns next week.

LOCAL FORECAST:
A cold front is passing through KELOLAND today. This front has been bringing showers and thunderstorms to western SD this afternoon. Some of these storm cells that have popped up near the Black Hills have been severe with hail up to the size of golf balls.

Looking ahead to the rest of today and tonight, this cold front will continue to move eastward so more thunderstorms are likely this evening for central and northeast KELOLAND. Short term computer models are showing the southeast can expect the storms after 7 PM and those in Minnesota and Iowa won’t see the storms until after 10 PM.

And with afternoon temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s, severe weather is a good possibility for those in the east and the southeast later today. The main threat is strong gusty winds up to, and exceeding, 70 mph. But there are secondary concerns for large hail with an isolated tornado threat. There is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in place for parts of SD and the SPC has placed an Enhanced risk centered over southeast KELOLAND.

Once the severe thunderstorms calm down, leftover showers will exit southeast KELOLAND during the overnight as cloud cover decreases over the region and temperatures cool to the 50s.

Sunday will be quiet with mostly sunny to sunny conditions and highs in the 70s to near 80.

Summer-like heat and humidity will return early next week. Expect air temperatures in the middle 80s to low 90s with dew points reaching the 70s. Heat index values may approach 100 for some on Monday.

Along with the heat and humidity we’ll watch for developing storms Monday night and/or Tuesday. This will be ahead of slightly cooler and drier air that should settle in by Wednesday. Some of the early week storms will be strong to severe.

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