There is an area of upper level high pressure to our south over Texas and an area of upper level low pressure to our north over the Hudson Bay. And sandwiched in between is KELOLAND and the rest of the Midwest. So while the overall, averaged upper level wind pattern over KELOLAND leans to the upper level high, which would bring warm and sunny weather, we’ll have small, ridge-riding low pressures at the surface that will bring more thunderstorms. A big challenge of this forecast is timing out those rounds of storms over the coming days.
Stubborn clouds are slowly moving east today so central SD has been seeing sunshine early this afternoon but east KELOLAND has been dealing with mostly cloudy skies. The west has been seeing clear skies most of the day but that has lead to increased instability and thunderstorms developing in the northwest and it looks like the storm chances will last into much of tonight.
Storm chances, with some severe storms, linger into the overnight for western SD while east KELOLAND looks to stay dry with continued decreasing clouds. While central SD is expected to be dry overall, I can’t rule out a dying storm making it into the area so I included isolated showers. We saw low clouds and fog last night across most of KELOLAND but tonight, it looks like just the east may see fog again. Overnight lows will be mostly in the 60s.
Sunday will see highs in the 70s to lower 80s with another round of passing showers and thunderstorms that will begin in the west in the afternoon, lasting into Sunday night as they move west to east. Some severe storms are possible again with hail, wind, and heavy rain being the main threats.
Thunderstorm chances last into Monday for central and east KELOLAND while the west is looking at dry skies. Afternoon temps on Monday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Next week continues the highs in the 70s to 80s with more rain in the forecast around the middle of the week.