Today will be partly cloudy in the morning and should become mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Showers are expected in western, central, and northern South Dakota, but they should remain light. With an easterly breeze, temperatures will warm to the low 60s in the east. Western SD will be cooler, with highs in the 50s.
Tonight, the rain chances continue but the best bet to get wet will be in eastern KELOLAND with lingering light chances in the central and west. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to 50s.
Sunday has the potential to be an active day of weather as a strong area of low pressure enters KELOLAND from the south. There will be a brisk SE wind bringing moist air into the region, so we may have some fog and drizzle in the morning. But if we have daytime sunshine along with that incoming moisture, the potential is there for strong thunderstorms in the west and central portions of the area, moving east during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will range in the 70s.
As far as the severe weather threat goes, SE KELOLAND will be the target area for severe weather potential. If thunderstorms form we may have the ingredients in place for all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has already rated the area as a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather. But that threat may be upgraded, especially if we get a decent amount of daytime heating from sunshine Sunday afternoon.
Some rain may linger into Monday morning as a cold front approaches with much cooler air behind it. Ahead of the front, SE KELOLAND should make it into the low 80s, but the rest of the area will be behind the front and cooler, in the 70s. Rapid City might not make it out of the 60s!
There will be another shot at rainfall on Tuesday as highs drop back below normal, in the 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will be even colder, with morning lows in the 30s to low 40s and afternoon highs in the 50s. While Rapid City and the Black Hills might be cold enough for snow, latest model runs say amounts would be light. Friday looks a little warmer with highs in the low 60s.