Storm center update – Saturday AM June 29

Forecast

BIG PICTURE:
We’ve been talking about it for several days now and the very warm, upper level high has arrived in KELOLAND. This pattern brought hot temperatures yesterday and the hot weather will continue today. But this upper level high will begin to weaken its grip on KELOLAND tonight which opens the door for storm chances beginning tonight and lasting into next week.

LOCAL FORECAST:
Today will be sunny, hot, and muggy. Highs will be in the 90s across KELOLAND, with a light southerly breeze. Central SD will warm to around 100. Dew points will again be in the 70s, so the heat and humidity will significantly impact outdoor activities. A heat advisory has been issued for this afternoon.

Late this afternoon into tonight will be tricky. A cold front looks to begin to swing through the area from the north tonight and that brings the potential for storms. The million dollar question is – will the cap hold and keep the storms at bay or will we get just enough vertical motion to get some thunderstorms going? So with that in mind, I’ve included a small chance for storms because there is evidence of the cap breaking. These storm chances may need to be adjusted with the afternoon update depending on how the atmosphere’s vertical profile evolves today. And if those storms are able to develop, strong to severe storms would be likely.

Sunday will again be warm but because of the cold front, some folks may only reach the 80s but those ahead of the front, mainly southeast KELOLAND, will reach the 90s again. And once again, eyes will be on the cold front for thunderstorm potential and if storms are able to get going, some may be strong to severe as there is plenty of heat energy and moisture available.

The rain chances will continue into Monday, with abundant cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Highs on Monday will fall back into the 80s.

Afternoon highs will be within a few degrees of normal Tuesday through Thursday. We will also have a near daily chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly because we will have some frontal boundaries lingering over KELOLAND. We’re keeping an eye on Thursday, the 4th of July, although the rainfall chances that day look a little higher for western KELOLAND than they do for eastern KELOLAND.

At or below average highs return on Friday, and are expected to continue into the first weekend of July.

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