In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a slow moving trough of low pressure will move over the Midwest, bringing KELOLAND passing rain and storm chances this weekend. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary will slowly move west to east through the area today through tomorrow. Along and ahead of this boundary, we’ll have chances for showers and some rumbles of thunder. Then a cold front will swing through Sunday into Monday, and that will bring passing thunderstorms to parts of south central and southeast KELOLAND late Sunday into Sunday night. Next week, the upper level flow should remain out of the northwest which puts us at risk of quick hits of light rain and cooler temps.
Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and dry in SE KELOLAND, with thicker clouds and better rainfall chances during the day in western and central South Dakota, NE KELOLAND has a chance for rain late today. Total rainfall coverage today will be more isolated to scattered. Afternoon temperatures will top out in the mid 70s to low 80s, with a southeasterly breeze that might be somewhat brisk. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible.
Sunday will be cloudy to mostly cloudy in central and east South Dakota with some light to moderate rain falling out of those clouds, but late Sunday is when strong thunderstorms and heavy rain is expected due to the passing cold front. Sunday’s afternoon temps will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, with a south breeze.
There is a possibility for severe weather this weekend but so far, it’s looking highest in central SD where the SPC has placed a Slight risk with a marginal risk in the east and west. But if storm cells are able to strengthen to severe status, strong wind gusts and large hail will be the main threats.
One aspect of this forecast that is looking good is a large portion of KELOLAND could end up with some decent rainfall. At this point, central and northern KELOLAND has about a 60 to 80% chance at getting more than a half an inch of rain through Monday morning. The northern counties in South Dakota still have about a 40 to 50% chance of seeing more than an inch of rain. So through Monday morning, most rain amounts will probably range between a quarter and three-quarters of an inch, with some of the higher end reports getting an inch or more.
The rain looks to continue into Monday but mainly during the morning hours and in east KELOLAND. Temperatures will be a little cooler, in the mid to upper 70s.
Next week is looking dry overall but that being said, that northwest flow in the upper parts of the atmosphere puts us at risk of quick moving hits of light rain so stay plugged into the forecast and don’t be surprised if those quick hits end up being added to the forecast. Highs next week are looking well below normal as they are projected to be in the 70s for most of the area, some counties in the northeast may struggle to get out of the 60s some days late next week!
Right now it looks like temperatures will remain in the 70s, slightly below normal, through the Labor Day weekend.