Storm Center Update – Saturday AM August 17

Forecast

BIG PICTURE:
An upper level trough of low pressure will pass KELOLAND to the north this weekend. This should bring the upper Midwest some passing cooler weather so tomorrow would end up being a little cooler than today, then warmer weather returns next week. And some passing thunderstorms are likely today as this cooler air moves in.

LOCAL FORECAST:
Another round of showers and storms are in the forecast for today, this is assuming the ongoing storms south of us near Kansas & Missouri don’t rob us of moisture and the atmosphere over KELOLAND is able to recover from morning rain. But our storms aren’t expected until later this afternoon and evening. So until then, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected as temperatures warm to the 80s.

The trigger for these thunderstorms will be an incoming cold front that will move in from the northwest. And as it moves eastward, it would run into a warm atmosphere that could sustain showers and thunderstorms. While some thundershowers are possible in western SD, the strong to severe storms will begin during the afternoon in central and northern South Dakota and move east/southeast.

Expect the rain in southeast KELOLAND after 7 PM. And the severe threat is for large hail and strong wind gusts but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Leftover showers will exit southeast KELOLAND tonight as cloud cover decreases and temperatures cool to the 50s.

Sunday will be quiet with mostly sunny to partly sunny conditions and highs in the 70s to near 80.

Summer-like heat and humidity will return early next week. Expect air temperatures in the middle 80s to near 90 with dew points reaching the 70s. Heat index values may approach 100 for some on Monday.

Along with the heat and humidity we’ll watch for developing storms Monday night and/or Tuesday. This will be ahead of slightly cooler and drier air that should settle in by Wednesday. Some of the early week storms will be strong to severe.

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