The prolonged heat and lack of rainfall is becoming worrisome. We expect that most – if not all – of KELOLAND is going to be hotter than normal through Father’s Day, with little in the way of beneficial rainfall. Forecast models suggest that over the next week, we will have under an inch of rainfall total. Sioux Falls is 2-1/2” drier than normal for 2021.
Tonight will be clear to partly cloudy East River, with thunderstorms possible in the west. Lows will be quite mild thanks to a southerly breeze, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Storms in western KELOLAND tonight have a slight chance to be severe, with winds and hail the primary threats in an environment that does not favor decent rainfall.
Tomorrow will be mostly sunny in Sioux Falls and the SE, while a few afternoon thundershowers will be possible in central and NE South Dakota, but they will be moisture starved for the most part. Temperatures will remain more than ten degrees warmer than normal, topping out in the mid to upper 90s.
Thursday will be partly cloudy and a couple degrees hotter, with a south wind drawing in a little bit of moisture. Highs will be in the upper 90s, to perhaps a hundred degrees in central and NE South Dakota.
That heat and an incoming cold front sets the stage for a fairly widespread severe weather event late Thursday into Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has already rated western and central South Dakota with an enhanced risk of severe weather. We could see damaging winds and large hail, but there is also a low end risk of tornadoes.
Sioux Falls and eastern KELOLAND will have its best chance of rainfall for the entire week early on Friday morning. Amounts will be meager, under a half inch in total – and Sioux Falls actually looks closer to a quarter inch. Friday, behind the cold front, will be cooler, falling back into the 80s – still warmer than normal.
The weekend looks extremely sunny and summer like. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 on Saturday, and a couple degrees hotter than that on Sunday.
Temperatures will be above-normal again next week, with lots of days in the upper 80s to low 90s. There is still no sign of any beneficial rains showing up on the forecast models, so it will be dry as well as hot. And the above-normal heat will continue through Father’s Day (June 20).