Storm Center PM Update – Tuesday, July 13: Widespread rainfall tonight and tomorrow

Forecast

Skies have been sunny in western and northern KELOLAND, with a patch of clouds – containing a few sprinkles – passing over the SE quarter of KELOLAND. But they are moving away to the east. Temperatures have been held back under the cloud cover, but with sunshine it has warmed into the mid to upper 80s.

We expect that a low pressure system passing through northern Nebraska will spread thick clouds and abundant rainfall over KELOLAND over the next 36 hours. There could also be some severe weather. Western South Dakota has been upgraded to an enhanced risk of severe weather tonight, with wind and hail being the primary threats.

Thunderstorms should begin in western South Dakota this evening and then spread to the east overnight. Rain will be possible in Sioux Falls and along the I-29 corridor after midnight. Lows will be in the mid 60s East River, and into the 50s in the west as winds switch to the north.

2 pm

Widespread rainfall will occur across the region over the next 36 hours, and it could be heavy – perhaps even excessive. An average of multiple computer models puts a broad swath of an inch or more of total rainfall across KELOLAND. For those travelling to the east, Minnesota and Iowa could get even heavier amounts approaching two inches or more.

In addition to the rainfall, there is a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening in Sioux Falls and eastern KELOLAND. The main threats for Sioux Falls will be hail and wind, with a low end tornado risk in Minnesota and Iowa – which has been upgraded to an enhanced risk of severe storms.

Otherwise, tomorrow will be cooler, in the 70s, with a brisk easterly wind.

The storm system should clear out by Thursday, which looks mostly sunny but slightly cooler than normal, with highs in the low 80s with a light northerly breeze.

Friday will be mostly sunny and a couple degrees warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s East River. Western South Dakota will be breezy and a little warmer, in the upper 80s.

We had been carrying low-end rain showers in the forecast for eastern KELOLAND on Saturday, but we have dropped those. Sunny in the east, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Western and central South Dakota could get some showers on Saturday, which will be breezy and warmer with upper 80s to low 90s.

Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny across KELOLAND, with the 80s East River to around 90 in the west.

Rainfall chances look pretty meager next week, with temperatures warming back up. It looks like we’ll be back into the low 90s for the weekend of July 23-24-25.

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