A warm front is moving into southwest South Dakota, and it will be the focus for thunderstorms with a marginal risk of severe weather. We had some morning fog in eastern KELOLAND, but it is eroding and now the skies are mostly sunny. We expect temperatures to rise through the 80s the rest of the day, with the possible exception of a few areas where low clouds remain.
We’re hoping to get some meaningful rainfall – today’s release of the drought monitor now includes Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND as being in a moderate drought.
Tonight we expect thunderstorms in western South Dakota will move east after midnight, but weaken as they do so. Overnight lows will remain mild, in the upper 60s to low 70s, reinforced by a light southerly breeze.
Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and a breezy as brisk southerly winds draw warmer – and slightly more humid – air into the region. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 East River, with the mid 90s in the west. There could be some thunderstorms firing late in the day in central and NE South Dakota as the warmth comes in.
The weekend still looks very warm, a little humid, and at times stormy. Current model timing still brings a wave of thunderstorms into eastern KELOLAND Saturday morning. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thunderstorms may redevelop in western and central South Dakota along with an incoming front, and there is a slight risk for severe weather with those storms.
Sunday will again be very warm and humid, with high sin the upper 80s to low 90s across KELOLAND. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours, and there will be a risk of severe weather with any of those storms that form as a cold front drops down from the north.
We’ll be cooler and drier on Monday behind that front. Highs will fall back near-normal, in the low to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies across KELOLAND. We’ve added a slight chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday as a wave moves west to east, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Weather should be quiet on Wednesday as we slowly warm back to the upper 80s East River to the low 90s in the west, where it should be mostly sunny. Thursday will be similarly warm, though low pressure in the west could spark some thunderstorms.
Climate models continue to suggest it will be warmer than normal for the end of next week and well into the following week, too. We’ll go through the middle of August with lots of seasonally warm and somewhat humid weather.