Storm Center PM Update – Thursday, August 5: More warming, with potential for Saturday thunderstorms

Forecast

We had some morning visibility problems. Fog in the east, and smoky skies in the west. Mostly sunny skies are winning the afternoon. Temperatures are rising through the 80s in the east to the low 90s in western and central South Dakota.

3 pm

We have at least a chance for some weak showers or thundershowers in eastern KELOLAND tonight. I say weak because the rainfall amounts look to be light (up to a few tenths of an inch), but moisture-limited thundershowers could produce some gusty winds. The mostly likely location of any thunderstorms would be from Sioux Falls to the northeast. Overnight lows as the skies break up will be in the low to mid 60s by morning.

Tomorrow we will have thicker smoke stream into KELOLAND from the northwest which, when combined with partly cloudy skies, will put a bit of a damper on heating. Smoke models suggest the smoke will mostly be aloft at cloud level, rather than near the ground. It will still be warmer than normal, with the upper 80s in much of KELOLAND, but the low 90s in central South Dakota. It will also become more humid, with an easterly breeze. That could result in thunderstorms Friday evening and night.

Showers and thunderstorms with more strength to them appear to be more likely on Saturday as an area of low pressure streams through central South Dakota. Clouds will also thicken as the day goes along. With the increasing clouds and rainfall, temperatures will drop back to the mid 80s to around 90, with south winds bringing in moisture for the thunderstorms to work with. Thunderstorms will continue into early Saturday morning in eastern KELOLAND.

The Saturday and Saturday night storms may be strong enough to produce some severe weather, with hail, winds, and even a low-end tornado risk. The Storm Prediction Center has already posted a slight risk of severe storms for Sioux Falls and areas east of the James River. But that same area could also get some beneficial rainfall, with over a half-inch possible.

After the rain moves out on Sunday, it will be a warm and humid day, with highs in the mid to upper 0s East River, and the low to mid 90s in the west.

We’ll start next week with a mostly sunny and hot and humid Monday. Temperatures will be hot, in the low to mid 90s. Winds may be a bit brisk in the west.

We’ll keep temperature above-average most of next week. We’ll probably get more of that western wildfire smoke, too. It looks like the middle of the week will become unsettled, with temperatures in the 80s but a few chances for showers and thundershowers. Right now, there is no clear signal as to exactly when.

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