Storm Center PM Update – Monday, July 5: Rainy tomorrow, with another shot at rain later in the week

Forecast

Locally strong thunderstorms have popped up along the Missouri River south of Pierre to Chamberlain and farther south, producing strong winds, lots of lightning, and heavy rainfall. Several flood warnings were issued due to the storm.

A cold front has dropped down across KELOLAND, over all but Sioux Falls and the SE corner of KELOLAND. That’s why Sioux Falls is hot and humid, while the rest of KELOLAND is very warm with drier, less humid air. Temperatures have climbed through the 80s into the 90s across most of the KELOLAND region.

3 pm

Tonight we’ll have a couple things going on. Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND could have an isolated thundershower due to the heat and humidity that have built up during the day, with temperatures hanging around 70 degrees overnight. The rest of KELOLAND will drop into the 60s, with energy coming in from the west that should set off fairly widespread showers and thundershowers. That area of rainfall will slowly move east overnight.

Tomorrow will be our best chance at meaningful rain. We expect cloudy skies with showers and thundershowers in eastern KELOLAND, while showers will wane in the west. Sioux Falls and the SE will be warmest, in the mid 80s, while northern and western KELOLAND will cool to the mid 70s to low 80s with a north breeze that will be brisk at times. We do not expect severe weather.

As far as rainfall totals, current forecast models project Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND at a quarter- to a half-inch. The heavier rainfall is expected in central and NE KELOLAND, north of I-90. Those areas could be in for a widespread half- to one-inch type totals. Forecast models continue to suggest that some places around the Watertown area could get a real soaking, over an inch.

Skies will clear out for a cooler and pleasant day on Wednesday, with the upper 70s East River to the 80s in the west with a partly cloudy sky.

Another warm front could bring a shot of thunderstorms to central and NE KELOLAND on Thursday. Skies will be partly cloudy for everyone, as we start to warm back up. Eastern KELOLAND, ahead of the warm front, will be in the mid 80s. With a stronger breeze, western South Dakota will climb back to the mid 90s.

That front will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern KELOLAND on Friday, with highs remaining near-normal in the mid 80s. Winds will be stronger in western South Dakota.

Rainfall will linger in eastern KELOLAND on Saturday, but skies should become partly cloudy across KELOLAND by Saturday afternoon. We’ll be slightly cooler than normal, in the upper 70s in the north to the low 80s in the south and west. Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny, with temperatures continuing to be slightly cooler than normal, in the low 80s east River to the mid 80s in the west.

Warmer weather starts to return next Monday, with the mid 80s in the east and the upper 80s in the west.

Longer range data suggest temperatures will continue to climb through next week. But the same data also hints that we’ll see more chances for rain next week, a hopeful sign for our drought-stricken region.

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