Clouds have been streaming into the area from the southwest today. There have been a few sprinkles and light showers in Rapid City and southwestern KELOLAND. The clouds and a northwesterly breeze have helped hold down temperatures which have been in the 50s in the north and west, while we’ve seen the 60s to low 70s in Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND.
Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy overnight, with more showers possible in Rapid City and the west. With a light breeze moving to an easterly direction, lows will be in themed 40s in southern KELOLAND, and the 30s with some breaks in the clouds in the north.
Tomorrow will be partly cloudy in the morning and becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon. We could have some afternoon showers in western and northern South Dakota, but they should remain light. With an easterly breeze, temperatures will cool to the low 60s. Rapid City will be breezy with a high in the 50s.
Sunday has the potential to be a very active day of weather as a strong area of low pressure crosses KELOLAND. There will be a brisk SE wind bringing moist air into the region, so we may even have some fog and drizzle in the morning. But if we have daytime sunshine along with that incoming moisture, the potential is there for strong thunderstorms in the west and central portions of the area, moving east during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures ahead of the cold front will soar into the 70s.
As far as the severe weather threat, Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND will be the target area for severe weather potential. If thunderstorms form we may have the ingredients in place for all forms of severe weather, including tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has already rated the area as a slight risk of severe weather. But that threat may be upgraded, especially if we get a decent amount of daytime heating from sunshine Sunday afternoon.
Some rain may linger into Monday morning as a cold front approaches with much cooler air. Ahead of the front Sioux Falls and SE KELOLAND should make it into the low 80s, but the rest of the area will be behind the front and sharply cooler in the 70s. Rapid City might not make it out of the 60s.
There will be another shot at rainfall on Tuesday as highs drop back below normal in the 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will be even colder, with morning lows in the 30s to low 40s, and afternoon highs much below normal in the 60s. While Rapid City and the Black Hills might be cold enough for snow, today’s model runs say amounts would be miniscule. Friday looks a little warmer, with a return to the low 60s.