Storm Center PM Update – Friday, December 4: Very warm and dry through the middle of next week

Forecast

Sunshine across KELOLAND today, with only a few high clouds. The only question about the forecast is when this warm and dry pattern will end. Today temperatures are ten to twenty degrees above-normal for the first week of December.

Tonight skies will be mostly clear, but it will be a mild night with lows in the 20s and a light northwesterly breeze at 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow will be sunny and almost as warm as today. We’ll be sunny in Sioux Falls and eastern KELOLAND, with highs in the mid 40s and a gentle northwest breeze at 5-15 mph. Western South Dakota will be warmer, in the low to mid 50s.

Sunday also looks unusually mild. We’ll be in be in the mid to upper 40s East River. Western South Dakota will surge into the upper 50s.

Dry and warm weather will continue next week. We’ve bumped Monday to the mid to upper 40s, while western South Dakota should reach the upper 50s. The warmth will intensify on Tuesday and Wednesday, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Sioux Falls and eastern KELOALND could reach 50 degrees, while Rapid City and western South Dakota look likely to shoot in to the low 60s. No rain or snow is forecast during this warm, dry surge. Only abundant sunshine.

The first of a series of cold fronts will come through on Thursday. It will be breezy, but temperatures should only drop about five degrees. We expect partly cludy skies and the mid 40s across KELOLAND on Thursday.

Another cold front with colder air comes our way on Friday. Highs will fall back into the upper 30s East River to the low 40s West River. We expect clouds to be thicker with this front, and we have a chance of rain or snow on Friday… primarily light snow in NE South Dakota as the front comes in, and light rain in the south and west. One comment about this front: There is at least one model that wants to bring significant snowfall on Friday, and you might see the amateurs on social media unknowingly looking at this and predicting the storm of the century. But this model is an outlier, with the majority of models so far suggesting only lighter rain or snow showers on Friday.

Colder air and better chances of rain and snow will come in for the following weekend, December 12-13. As we’ve been saying, the good news for mitigating our ongoing drought – the forecast models continue to suggest that the second half of December will be much snowier for us in the Northern Plains.

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