The first batches of winter storm watches have been posted for parts of KELOLAND late tomorrow through early Friday. We still think the heaviest snow will stay in the northcentral area of SD, but some impacts of freezing rain and wind will extend farther to the east and south. Keep reading this forecast for details below.

A series of low pressure areas are organizing today to our west. We expect the first shot of showers and perhaps some rumbles of thunder in eastern KELOLAND.

Keep watching radar in northeast Nebraska. The first showers started developing after 6:30am.

On Futurecast, you can see the showers into western MN today. Heavy rain is not forecast with round 1. However, more organized clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight, mainly north of I-90.

Temperatures are expected to rise into the mid 50s to lower 60s after midnight in southeastern KELOLAND. Meanwhile, colder north winds in western KELOLAND will bring much colder air into the northwest. While occasional pockets of rain are possible tomorrow, the brunt of the rain and snow will redevelop tomorrow evening across KELOLAND. Notice the pink zone where freezing rain could becoming a problem, just west of Aberdeen. Sioux Falls will miss most of the snow, but the cold wind will be obvious during the day on Thursday as the storm departs.

Here’s a closer look at the wind forecast.

The total precipitation forecast is heaviest across western MN. This will be the wettest system we’ve had in the region in a long time.

The map below highlights the ice Wednesday night and early Thursday.

Snow totals should be heaviest in the Mobridge area. Most of these numbers are not heavy, but it’s the first one of the season and roads will be impacted due to the snow, wind, and falling temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday.

The confidence on heavy snow is best in the area shaded in orange, again, mainly in the northcentral.

Here are the details of the forecast.