A few morning showers and thunderstorms have developed in southcentral KELOLAND. You can see this picture from our Gregory LiveCAm as of 7 a.m. showing the rain toward the Winner area.
The scattered hits of rain won’t last too long. A hot afternoon is ahead for much of KELOLAND.
The 30 day rain map is starting to change. Notice the growing areas of yellow and orange in central and parts of northeast SD. We’ll soon loose the footprint of the big storm from July 5th on this map, illustrating the need for rain.
Temperatures will be turning hotter today in western KELOLAND with a few areas near 100. The heat will expand tomorrow as a cold front approaches from the northwest. We expect areas of thunderstorms to develop tomorrow night along the front. Some could be locally severe with damaging winds and pockets of heavy rain, mainly in southcentral SD.
The map below shows the marginal risk of severe weather in green for Friday.
The outlook will shift to the southeast on Saturday.
We are hopeful a few more thunderstorms will develop during the day Saturday along the front as it slides to the south and east. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday PM in the Black Hills as another upper air disturbance advances into KELOLAND Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will give us our best shot at more widespread rain, with the hope that a few more areas in the worst of the drought will at least get some short-term help.
The rain totals will be locally heavy due to the abundance of moisture at a great depth in the atmosphere. Rain totals over 1″ will be around, but still have more details to watch on the placement of the heaviest rainfall. The map below is the raw data from the European model.
We can weight the odds of heavier rain by looking at the ensemble data from the European model. It is encouraging to see it trying to generate some 1″ rain areas south of I-90 where it is greatly needed. We expect these maps will adjust to the newest data and tomorrow, so continue to watch for updates.
Hot weather will return to the plains in the long-range forecast.
Here’s a look at the forecast.