Locally Heavy Rain, Severe Weather Next 36 Hours: Storm Center Update- Thursday AM, August 19th

Forecast

Showers and thunderstorms have been tracking across far western SD the past 12 hours. We expect new rounds of storms this afternoon in the Black Hills region.

We have already had .71″ in Custer so far.

Look how dry it has been the past 30 days in much of KELOLAND. The rain will be welcomed in many areas.

The best chance of severe weather tonight will be in far southwestern SD.

That risk will spread east tomorrow. The amount of severe weather on Friday will depend on the temperature recovery during the early afternoon after morning rain chances diminish.

The best chance of hail in the Sioux Falls area will be late tomorrow afternoon. We’ll be monitoring the latest severe weather forecast information the next 24 hours.

Futurecast shows the increase in thunderstorms across the west this afternoon. This line of storms will try to move east tonight, possibly reaching Sioux Falls by 7am. Redeveloping thunderstorms are expected after 12pm. Again, the amount of severe weather will depend on how much the atmosphere destabilizes. All modes of severe weather will be possible east of the James Valley, but the storms will exit quickly Friday evening.

The 2 maps below are some sample model data on rainfall potential. Remember, the exact numbers can easily change, but the trend shows swaths of thunderstorms that will easily put down 1-2″ of rain in local spots. The forecasted placement of those spots can still change a bit.

Severe weather may return on Sunday as another system affects KELOLAND. We have a busy forecast.

There could be more rain next week, so the 10 day forecast is still bullish for rain in the northern plains. We will proceed with cautious optimism.

Hot and breezy weather will continue today with highs in the 90s central and east.

Tonight still looks mild with the rain chances ahead.

Tomorrow will be in the 80s in most areas east, but hourly temperatures will be directly impacted by local rainfall during the day. Look at Rapid City…just 69 tomorrow!

Rain chances are at 40% on Sunday, but we may be increasing those odds soon. The next shot at rain on Wednesday is starting to show more potential as well.

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