We have partly to mostly sunny skies in KELOLAND today. Morning rains have moved out, but there’s a second band of spotty showers along both sides of Highway 14, moving to the northeast. There is also a strong thunderstorm moving along the Nebraska border in the lower Missouri River valley. With an east breeze that will turn to the south, temperatures are in the low 80s in SE KELOLAND, ahead of a front, and in the upper 60s to the 70s in northern and western South Dakota.
Tonight we’ll see thundershowers become more widespread during the evening and overnight hours. There is only a marginal risk of severe weather, in part due to uncertainty about timing and even whether thunderstorms can initiate. The better thunderstorm chances will be after midnight as energy comes in from the southwest.
Tomorrow could be a very rainy and stormy day. With a stationary front parked along the Nebraska/South Dakota border, slow moving thunderstorms will be possible. Winds will be from the east, and a stream of moisture should feed into those thunderstorms. We expect widespread rainfall tomorrow and tomorrow night.
KELOLAND remains in a significant drought, but with slow moving thunderstorms tomorrow there is actually a decent chance we will get excessive rainfall due to the stalled front. The Weather Prediction Center rates much of KELOLAND a slight chance of excessive rainfall. While most of KELOLAND should expect around an inch, localized 2-4” amounts will be possible, and pockets of 5” cannot be ruled out. Again, most people will not get several inches of rainfall, but based upon thunderstorm movement and where the boundaries set up, a few locations could experience flash flooding.
One other thing to not is that there is a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow late afternoon and night. The main threat form severe storms would probably be damaging winds, though there may also be some hail.
Thunderstorms will end tomorrow night, then skies will turn partly cloudy on Friday. Highs will be in the upper 70s in the north to the 80s in southern KELOLAND.
Another good chance of thunderstorms will be in the forecast for Saturday, with temperatures highly dependent on where the fronts set up.
Sunday looks like the nicer day of the weekend, with clear skies and highs in the low 80s behind the storm front. It appears the unsettled weather will continue next week.