The Red Sox host the Rays for a divisional showdown, and you guessed it -- we are going over.

And we’re getting even money.

Tampa Bay continues to lead the MLB with a .690 win percentage, and they have done so by scoring the second-most runs per game this season (5.86).

Despite being in last place in the AL East, Boston has the same .519 win percentage as the AL Central-leading Twins. They have scored the fourth-most runs per game this season (5.23).

The wheels have come off the Rays’ bullpen recently, and they have the second-highest ERA in the league (6.19) across the past two weeks of play.

Now for the starters.

Tampa Bay will start Tyler Glasnow. whose ERA is 6.23, but hold onto your hats: his xERA is 9.64. No, that is not a typo. Sure, he’s only had one start so far this season and it was vs. the Dodgers, but this matchup isn’t much easier. It’s unlikely he will go deep into this game even though the Rays will need him to. He’ll still get plenty of swings and misses, but the Red Sox should be able to take advantage of a pitcher who is still building back up after missing the start of the season.

Garrett Whitlock gets the start for the Sox. Whitlock has an ERA of 5.14, and his xERA is only slightly better at 4.57. The Rays will get their hits in, too.

Games at Fenway are averaging 11.55 runs this season.

Tampa Bay leads the league with 61.8% of their games going over (34-21-3).

Boston is second with 61.1% (33-21-2).

Even in the rain, I’m taking the over before the value changes.

The Bet: Over 9.5 runs +100

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