As with any year, plenty of factors have gone into this year's snowfall prediction, and just how all these factors go into a seasonal forecast is the key. I think our main factor this winter will be the weather trend that started not in October, but in September.

While September was warm and dry, we had a couple of days with clouds and rain. Those days stand out to me because of what was happening in the upper atmosphere, about three miles up. 

We had a couple of cut-off lows, which gave much of us our rain in September. Cut-off lows are storm systems that stay out of the main steering currents of the jet stream, they can last for several days. That trend continued in October, but with much colder air. 

While much of November should be snowfall-free, I think our tell-tale month will be December. That's when I expect the weather pattern to mimic what we had in October. This also means I expect much of our snow during December. If we escape the snow in December, I think my forecast will be a bust. Another possible snowy month this winter will be February. 

With that in mind, I'm forecasting an above average snow this year with a total by the end of April of 57.3 inches. Our average snow in Sioux Falls is around 40 inches. 

I realize this is a forecast that is going against the grain of many other seasonal forecasts, but time will tell what will end up being true.