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Weather Analysis 1-21-13

January 21, 2013, 3:50 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT


Brrr, coldness.  But we’ve been through worse. 

Lows tonight will fall to the teens and twenties below in eastern South Dakota.  Kept the -17° for Aberdeen, but I did think of throwing them in the 20s below…we’ll see.  Kept Sioux Falls at -8°, 0° in Pierre, and 8° in Rapid City.

Frontogenesis banding will move slowly east.  The QPF numbers are very low with the highest on the GFS in Mitchell for .02”.  With 20:1 ratios, that equates to just under a half inch.  While the QPF is south and east of Sioux Falls, the frontogenesis sets up over SE South Dakota, late tonight into the morning.  Frontogenesis leaves the area during the morning, with a slow decrease in clouds.  While highs will be a tad warmer, we will still be well below average.  Highs near 10° in the east to near 20° in Pierre.  Rapid City will have highs in the 30s to low 40s.  That temps difference will last through much of the week, 30s/40s in the west…teens/20s in the central and east. 

Another hit of cold air moves in on Friday with highs in the single digits.  Lows for Friday night and Saturday morning will fall to the single digits and teens below. 

Temps will slowly warm in eastern KELOLAND for the weekend, but I’m not banking on a big warm-up.  Back to the 20s, I’m not too exciting about advertising 30s for the east.

We’ll have to watch ten days from the now.  Over the past couple of days, the GFS has been bringing snow to the southeast around the end of the month.  It has since backed off, but the EURO is trying to pick up on something.

GFS 240 hours out…for January 31 (below).

EURO 240 hours out…for January 31…(below)

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