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Weather Analysis 1-9-13

January 9, 2013, 4:27 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Rain/freezing rain chances on Thursday in the southeast, then snow in the west, central, and northeast. 

First is the chance for rain and freezing rain/drizzle in southeast KELOLAND for Thursday and Thursday night.  Clouds will increase through the day in eastern KELOLAND with the best chance for sun being in the morning.  Northeast, central, and western KELOLAND will stay dry during the day with a chance for rain showers or drizzle in eastern and northeast KELOLAND Thursday night. 

Second is the numerous Winter Storm Watches in western, central, and northeast KELOALND for Friday and Friday night.  Cold air will eventually pour into the upper plains on Friday with snow likely.  The best chance for snow will be in western South Dakota on Friday, then into northeast KELOLAND Friday evening and Friday night.  This will also correlate with the snow bands, though I’m not ready to guess who gets what just yet, 3-6” should be likely in the watch area.  If the snow ratios work out, we could see areas over six inches.  Winds will be the culprit with this system as they will increase from the north/northwest at 15-30 mph in Aberdeen and Pierre to 20-40 mph in Rapid City.  Some snow will continue into Saturday, but a lot of it will be done.  Models usually like to linger things a little longer than what actually happens.  At the moment, I wouldn’t be surprised if Sioux Falls misses out on the snow.

QPF table is below, could be another round of decent snow in the Hills.

The weekend will be cold with highs only in the single digits and teens.  The cold air will last into next week with a slow warm-up expected around midweek.  Remember what BK says, “cold air is like molasses”.

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