THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN. JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING. IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST. BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT
After a big warm-up, I think plenty of cold air will pour in the upper plains late by the weekend. There are signs that the cold air will last well beyond the seven-day! Before then, I bumped up Wednesday’s forecast high in Sioux Falls to 40°! We hit 38° on Monday, and there’s only been three Januarys without hitting 40 since 1990.
In the meantime, a closed low will quickly move into the Midwest bring a chance for plain rain to KELOLAND on Thursday. Amounts of a quarter to a third will be common in northwest Iowa with lesser amounts to the north and west. Sioux Falls QPF on the GFS is at .16” for Thursday while it spits out .25” in Spencer and Orange City. Some light showers may find there way into Mitchell, Huron, and Brookings but the amounts will stay less than a tenth of an inch.
When the cold air arrives on Friday, so will the snow! The best chance for snow will be in western, central, north central, and northeast KELOLAND. The snow will shift to the east and southeast Friday night and Saturday. QPF on the GFS is impressive with .45” in Mobridge, .35” Watertown, .28” in Aberdeen, .25” Huron, .25” Brookings, .16” Sioux Falls. Keep in mind that the winds will be strong.