THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN. JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING. IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST. BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT
Models are all over the place when it comes to the extended forecast.
It looks a lot like the same set-up on the GFS with the split energy as it was back in October and early December. There’s a main vort to our north and one to our south along the edge of the cold front.
The EURO on the other hand, brings a vort from western Texas on Tuesday to western Missouri on Wednesday. I originally put in a 20 POP for everyone on Thursday (January 10th), but I want to see better agreement on the models… I took it out. The QPF numbers in Sioux Falls range from .72” for Thursday on the EURO to .01” on the GFS. Both models then bring in colder air, though not bitterly cold, I’d say closer to average temps late next week. GFS is hinting at bitterly cold air around the 16th or 17th, this would jive with our snow chance on the cycle around that time AND the 20 degree temp swing we had during the first week of December. If this scenario holds true and we still have snow on the ground, it could be very cold by the middle of the month.