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Weather Analysis 1-2-13

January 2, 2013, 4:46 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Nice to see the Hills finally get some snow, when it stops amounts of 6-12”+ should be common.

Temps will slowly warm over the next couple of days to eventually lead to the infamous “January Thaw”, just how warm and how soon is the question.  It’s always good to delay warm-ups, as models tend to quickly shove the cold air out.  As we know, this is hard to do as Karstens like to call cold air “molasses”.

I have a lot of sunny icons in the seven-day except for Saturday (dry cold front), Tuesday/Wednesday (watching wave to our south.  The GFS has been spitting out around a tenth or two to today’s quarter inch for NEXT Thursday (January 10).  The EURO has Sioux Falls dry but gives Omaha .11” and Des Moines .28”.  The GFS gives Sioux Falls .28”, Omaha .19”, and Des Moines .26”.  So while the wave may look impressive, the QPF amounts seem low.

Next week’s chance doesn’t jive with the cycle, so we’ll see what happens.  The next main system on the cycle will be around January 16, and if I remember correctly it should be associated with split flow…we’ll see.

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