December 27, 2012
While the main storm system was well to our south on Christmas Day, upper level energy in the northern stream of things caught us two days later. By the time things are done, it will hit areas in southeast KELOLAND with three to five inches of snow and should get my prediction at least a third of the way there for Sioux Falls. Once this moves through, I don’t expect much to happen until the middle of January (we might even be able to squeak in a “January Thaw” before then).
I’m basing this on the LRC, which you can read about in one of the previous blogs. This looks to be a 44-47 day cycle; we’ll see how things shape up as we go into January and February. I think the cycle numbers may get thrown off a little after the winter solstice; we’ll have to wait and see. For now, I will post some dates below to see how close we get to receiving snow. The precip numbers are from Sioux Falls. December 27 snow is from late Thursday morning.
We’ll see how close we get to receiving snow on or around those dates in January and February. Before then, I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a “January Thaw”.
Since 1990, Sioux Falls has had at least one day of 40°+ highs in all but three years. The years that missed the warmth are 2011, 2010, and 1993. In fact, the record highs in January for Sioux Falls are all in the fifties and sixties EXCEPT for January 3. That day has a record high of 47°.
Based on the pattern from October and early November, I think we should start to see some of that warmth heading back into KELOLAND in January.