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 Winter Storm for January 31-February 1, 2015

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Weather Analysis 12-26-12

December 26, 2012, 4:28 PM by Scot Mundt

IS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT

Interesting scenario setting up with our snow tomorrow.  While most of the model runs have been around a tenth of an inch or less for QPF over the past several days for Sioux Falls.  They are now coming in from a tenth at Chamberlain to just under a quarter in southeast SD and northwest IA.  Table is listed below…


While I don’t get too excited about snow ratios until after the event, this looks to be an efficient snow maker, so a 2-4” band should be likely in SE KELOLAND (with isolated 5”).  Taken from doubling the QPF numbers, falling in teen to near 20 temps.  Snow amounts drop off to a trace to an inch or two for western, central, and northeast KELOLAND.  Winds will be light (5-15 mph), so while there will be travel problems due to the snow…the wind will not be that bad.

After this moves through, I don’t expect anything until at least mid-January.  I need to check the cycle numbers before getting too bold as to when to expect anything.  Before the middle of January, be on the look-out for the infamous “January Thaw”.

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