December 18, 2012
Per yesterday’s blog entry and mentioning doing an update on Midday in KELOLAND today, here’s a look at the latest models trends. From what I’ve seen, the American model moves things to the south, while the European model continues to bring a storm into KELOLAND.
GFS digs a big trof in the western United States on the 500 mb map for December 26th. It also has a large vort max associated with it. We’ll have to see if any pieces of energy get spit out before the main vort moves through.
Here’s a look at the 36 hour precip output for the evening of Dec 26 into the morning of December 28, this too has A LOT of moisture to our south. Right along the Mississippi River, there’s a bulls-eye of 2.5” to 4”!
This is the EURO via Penn State’s website. The EURO is about a full day faster that the GFS! It also has the storm system farther to the north, giving KELOLAND a great chance for snow along with strong wind.
With big storms on the models like this, I’ve often seen them slow down more than speed up, so I think the EURO is a little too fast. I also think things will start in western South Dakota late in the day Monday with better chances on Tuesday (Christmas Day). I also threw in a small snow chance for central and eastern KELOLAND on Christmas Day. There will be better chances for snow in eastern KELOLAND just beyond the seven-day forecast, next Wednesday.