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Christmas Week Weather Analysis

December 18, 2012, 3:35 PM by Scot Mundt

December 18, 2012

Per yesterday’s blog entry and mentioning doing an update on Midday in KELOLAND today, here’s a look at the latest models trends.  From what I’ve seen, the American model moves things to the south, while the European model continues to bring a storm into KELOLAND.

GFS digs a big trof in the western United States on the 500 mb map for December 26th.  It also has a large vort max associated with it.  We’ll have to see if any pieces of energy get spit out before the main vort moves through. 

Here’s a look at the 36 hour precip output for the evening of Dec 26 into the morning of December 28, this too has A LOT of moisture to our south.  Right along the Mississippi River, there’s a bulls-eye of 2.5” to 4”!

This is the EURO via Penn State’s website.  The EURO is about a full day faster that the GFS!  It also has the storm system farther to the north, giving KELOLAND a great chance for snow along with strong wind.

With big storms on the models like this, I’ve often seen them slow down more than speed up, so I think the EURO is a little too fast.  I also think things will start in western South Dakota late in the day Monday with better chances on Tuesday (Christmas Day).  I also threw in a small snow chance for central and eastern KELOLAND on Christmas Day.  There will be better chances for snow in eastern KELOLAND just beyond the seven-day forecast, next Wednesday.

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