THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN. JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING. IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST. BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT
There’s a big difference in the qpf amounts from the EURO and the GFS. I have the table below. The EURO goes as high as three-quarters an inch for Pipestone and Sioux Falls while the GFS chops it to .14” for Pipestone and .17” for Sioux Falls. EURO has been overdoing the precip amounts in past systems, but GFS might be a little low. GFS is tightly wound, cutting off any moisture supply from the south. Averaging the two might work, this gives anywhere from a quarter to a half inch. I think a lot of this will fall as plain rain, but the areas of deep snow pack will have freezing rain. This will be from Marshall, to Brookings, and to Huron. Where I think amounts of 4-8” are still on the ground.
Watch the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. GFS has a wave moving through Nebraska, QPF is currently low. EURO also has a wave moving through, though very fast. Before the wave, temps warm well above average on Tuesday.
Jay keeps asking about Christmas week. GFS and EURO have cold high pressure moving through the upper plains on Sunday. Looks like this low will slowly move east through Christmas Day, so while Sunday can be cold, temps will slowly warm as we go through the week. As far as the trof in the cycle for Christmas, it might be a couple of days after.