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Weather Analysis 12-12-12

December 12, 2012, 4:25 PM by Scot Mundt

THIS IS A COPY OF AN EMAIL I SEND OUT TO JAY, BRIAN, AND BEN.  JUST SOME THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DOING.  IT MAY OR MAY NOT REFLECT THE FINAL FORECAST.  BE SURE TO VISIT OUR WEATHER PAGE FOR UPDATES. –SCOT MUNDT


Cooler tomorrow will north winds and thicker clouds.  The snow pack is keeping central, eastern, and northeast KELOLAND cool with temps in the 20s to near 30 today as Sioux Falls warmed to the middle 40s.

The next main system to affect the area will arrive Friday night and Saturday.  It will be interesting to see how this moves through.  We have a 50 pop for a wintry mix, but it looks like a lot might fall as rain instead of snow.  Of course, we’ll have to watch for freezing rain too! 

QPF numbers are greater on the EURO than the GFS.  The NAM and CAN are VERY high; I have the amounts for the EURO and GFS below.  This will mainly affect the southeast.

Once this system moves through, I think seasonal air will be around for the rest of the seven day.  The cycle does bring something through next Wednesday December 19.  The GFS has a weak system in Kansas on the surface with several weak waves at the 500mb level.  We’ll see if anything gets generated out of the subtle waves, but for now have it dry.  The EURO has a weak wave through the 500 level on Wednesday and the upper levels look more like November 4 than the GFS.  Still waiting to see if we get a trof to develop in the southwest United States Christmas week!

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